Pending Home Sales Fell 11% From a Year Ago. Is It a Buyer's Market Now?
By Jerry L Kindig III, NMLS #2397823
If you've been house hunting this fall, you may have noticed something different. Listings sit a little longer. Sellers who wouldn't budge in the spring are suddenly open to a conversation. The numbers back that up.
According to the National Association of REALTORS, pending home sales fell 7.3% from August to September and were down 11.3% from a year earlier (NAR, Oct. 20, 2026). Every region of the country saw a drop. So does that mean it's finally a buyer's market? Here's how I'd read it, and what it means if you're thinking about buying.
What "pending home sales" actually means
A pending sale is a home that's under contract but hasn't closed yet. Because most contracts close within a month or two, NAR's pending home sales index is an early look at where closed sales are headed.
When pending sales drop, it means fewer buyers signed contracts that month. That usually shows up in closed sales a month or two later, and it often means the buyers who are still out there face less competition.
What the September numbers showed
Here are the main points from NAR's latest reports:
- Contracts fell everywhere. Pending sales declined month over month in all four regions. The West had the biggest drop, down 9.2% from August and 15% from a year ago.
- More homes are for sale. NAR's existing-home sales report showed inventory at 1.60 million homes in September, up 4.6% from a year earlier, or about a 4.8-month supply (NAR, Oct. 13, 2026).
- Homes are taking longer to sell. The median time on market rose to 33 days in September, up from 31 in August.
- Prices haven't dropped nationally. The median existing-home price was $417,500, up 1.3% from a year ago.
NAR's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, put it this way: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." In the existing-home sales release, he added that "higher inventory and lengthening days on market give buyers improved negotiating power."
So is it a buyer's market?
Not quite, at least not nationally. A common rule of thumb in real estate is that around six months of supply or more tilts things toward buyers, and fewer than that favors sellers. At 4.8 months, the country as a whole sits somewhere in the middle, and prices are still inching up year over year.
But "the national market" isn't where you're buying. Some areas have a lot more inventory than others, and some price ranges are moving slower than the rest. A home that's been sitting for 45 days in your neighborhood is a different negotiation than a fresh listing in a hot school district. Your agent can pull local numbers like months of supply, days on market, and price reductions for the exact area you're shopping.
The honest answer is that buyers have more room to negotiate than they've had in a while, even if it's not a full-blown buyer's market.
How to use the extra leverage
If sellers are seeing fewer offers, you may be able to ask for more than just a lower price. A few things worth talking through with your agent:
- Seller concessions. Asking the seller to cover part of your closing costs can save you cash up front. Here's how seller concessions work and the limits that apply.
- A rate buydown paid by the seller. Instead of a price cut, some buyers ask the seller to pay for a temporary buydown that lowers the rate for the first year or two. My post on how a 2-1 buydown works walks through it, and this page compares discount points vs. a temporary buydown.
- Repairs and inspection items. In a slower market, sellers are more likely to fix things or give a credit instead of saying "take it or leave it."
- Time. You may not have to make a decision the same afternoon you tour a home. That gives you room to compare options and think it over.
Every deal is different, and there's no promise a seller will say yes. But it doesn't hurt to ask when the market gives you a little more room.
What about mortgage rates?
Rates are a big part of why contract signings slowed. When rates jump quickly, some buyers qualify for less, and others decide to wait. Rates change daily, so I won't quote one here, and nobody can tell you for sure where they'll go next.
What you can control is knowing what payment works for you. Run your own numbers in our mortgage payment calculator, and read how much house you can actually afford before you fall in love with a listing. It also pays to compare more than one lender, since pricing on the same day can vary. That's one reason people work with a broker, and here's how a mortgage broker compares to a bank.
Be ready before you make an offer
More negotiating power only helps if you're ready to act when the right home shows up. A strong pre-approval tells a seller you're serious and lets you push on price or terms with confidence. Here's the list of documents you'll need for a pre-approval, and the difference between prequalification and pre-approval.
The next data points to watch: NAR releases October existing-home sales on Thursday, Nov. 12, and October pending home sales on Wednesday, Nov. 18 (NAR release schedule). Those will show whether the slowdown kept going into the fall.
FAQ
What are pending home sales?
Homes that are under contract but haven't closed yet. NAR tracks them monthly as an early signal of where closed sales are headed over the next month or two.
Is it a buyer's market right now?
Nationally, not quite. Inventory was about a 4.8-month supply in September, which is closer to balanced, and prices were still up slightly from a year ago. Some local markets and price ranges favor buyers more than others.
Will home prices drop because pending sales fell?
Not necessarily. Fewer contracts can mean more price cuts on homes that sit, but the national median price was still up 1.3% year over year in September. Local conditions matter more than the national headline.
Should I wait to buy until rates come down?
That depends on your budget and timeline. Waiting could mean a lower rate, or it could mean more competition if rates fall and buyers rush back. If the payment works for you today and you find the right home, there's no need to try to time the market perfectly.
Thinking about making a move?
If you're shopping now and want to know how much room you have to negotiate on financing, reach out. I'll help you get pre-approved, shop your loan across lenders, and look at options like seller credits or a buydown for your situation. Check out our first-time buyer page or contact me through our contact page.
Not all clients will qualify for these products. Eligibility and availability vary by program and borrower. This article is for general information only and is not a prediction of future rates or home prices. It is not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Rates and programs change daily and are subject to credit approval, underwriting, and property eligibility.
Jerry L Kindig III, NMLS #2397823 | Loan Factory, NMLS #320841 | Equal Housing Opportunity
